StormSense | AI Severe Weather Early Warning

West Bengal Nowcasting Desk

LIVE MONITORING

Hazard cards show the West Bengal-wide peak; the Current Location panel shows your coordinates. Updated every 5 minutes.

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Atmospheric Hazard · West Bengal peak

Thunderstorm

NORMAL

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Precipitation Hazard · West Bengal peak

Heavy Rainfall

NORMAL

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Hydrological Hazard · West Bengal peak

Flash-Flood Risk Proxy

NORMAL

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Combined Index

Overall Hazard Level

NORMAL

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NORMAL - Nominal Observation

NORMAL West Bengal

0–6 hour outlook

AI FORECAST

radar

Interactive Nowcasting Map GOOGLE MAPS

West Bengal (22.724°N, 88.479°E)

CURRENT CONDITIONS --:-- IST OBSERVED --:-- · AGE --

INITIALISING…

SEVERE WEATHER RISK NOW

<25% Normal 25–50% Watch 50–75% Alert ≥75% Warning

AI-derived severe weather risk · Not an official government warning

Model Grid: 0.25° (~28 km)

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825 Spatial Cells · SRTM Topography Ingested

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Active Meteorological Bulletins

Currently identified higher-risk areas

ADVISORY

Active High-Risk Area (state-wide) ...

psychology

Explainable AI (XAI) Factor Attribution

Rule-based atmospheric factor attribution

Method: Physics-based rules (not learned attribution)

Spatial Nowcasting & Satellite Data Desk

AI FORECAST

0.25° AI forecast grid + INSAT-3DR Geostationary Meteorological Archive

Resolution: 0.25° (~28 km) · 825 Cells

radar AI Spatial Forecast & Live Radar

RADAR IDLE PEAK CELL: —

Domain: 20.0–28.0°N, 84.0–90.0°E (West Bengal) Selected horizon

Radar product: not loaded —

satellite_alt INSAT-3DR Meteorological Satellite Data Channel

ISRO / IMD ARCHIVE

Satellite Data Integration Status: The project repository houses episodic INSAT-3DR HDF5 multispectral imagery across 14 severe pre-monsoon convective storm events (2020–2024). Used for qualitative physical validation of convective cloud-top structure.

THERMAL IR (TIR-1) 10.8 µm · 4 km Nadir Cloud-top brightness temp

WATER VAPOR (WV) 6.8 µm · 4 km Nadir Mid-tropospheric moisture

HYDRO-ESTIMATOR (HEM) Precipitation QPE (mm/h) Infrared rainfall retrieval

CLOUD TOP PRESSURE (CTP) Vertical Profile (hPa) Updraft penetration depth

Scientific Rigor Notice: Forecasts are generated by the AI model from gridded atmospheric analysis and terrain elevation. INSAT data is episodic (93h overlap with training data); no fabricated live satellite latency is simulated.

Orbit: 74.0° E Geostationary Meteorological Historical Case Archive

track_changes Predicted High-Risk Grid Cells

Connected 0.25° grid cells exceeding calibrated decision threshold for selected horizon

Selected horizon

Loading high-risk grid cells...

IMD District Advisories & Civil Defence Protocols

OPERATIONAL ADVISORIES

Inter-agency coordinated flood warnings, disaster management cell, and NDRF relief command

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Broadcast Advisory Log

IN-APP BULLETIN

No advisories published yet.

AI Nowcast & Model Benchmark Desk

2024 HELD-OUT TEST EVALUATION

Rigorous empirical comparison on held-out 2024 convective season (May–Oct 2024, 4,322 hourly samples, 3,565,650 grid evaluations).

AI Forecast Model Earlier Model Baseline Persistence Baseline Evaluation: 0.25° Grid Across West Bengal

schedule Select Forecast Lead Horizon:

Select a horizon…

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Model Architecture & Held-Out Test Metrics

Lead Time: …

AI Forecast Model

Tri-Stream ConvGRU + Temperature Scaling

WINNER

THREAT SCORE (CSI) 0.405 +46.5% vs earlier baseline

PR-AUC 0.642 +59.2% vs earlier baseline

RECALL / POD 0.616 61.6% Detection

FALSE ALARM (FAR) 0.457 54.3% Precision

Brier Calibration Score: 0.0415

Rainfall MAE: 0.44 mm

Parameters: 781,889 Beats Persistence

Earlier Model Baseline

Single ConvGRU (130k params)

BASELINE

THREAT SCORE (CSI) 0.272 Unseparated pressure

PR-AUC 0.412 Static 1x1 conv head

RECALL / POD 0.540 Under-parameterized

FALSE ALARM (FAR) 0.632 High false alarms

Brier Calibration Score (mean): 0.0886 (Uncalibrated)

Rainfall MAE: 0.58 mm

Parameters: 130,544 Loss mismatch issue

Persistence Baseline

Lagged Convective State (t=0)

HEURISTIC

THREAT SCORE (CSI) 0.339 Degrades past +3h

PR-AUC 0.275 No advection physics

RECALL / POD 0.506 Storm dissipation missed

FALSE ALARM (FAR) 0.494 Ghost storms persist

Brier Calibration Score (mean): 0.0387

Rainfall MAE: 0.76 mm

Parameters: 0 Zero trainable state

timeline

Multi-Horizon Convective Evolution (+2h to +6h)

Autoregressive ConvGRU Decoder Output for Monitored Sector

West Bengal

Loading multi-horizon forecast evolution...

thermostat

Atmospheric Instability State

ANALYZING

CAPE (SURFACE-BASED)

— J/kg

Potential Updraft Energy

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION

— J/kg

Boundary Layer Inversion

0-6 km BULK SHEAR

— m/s

Kinematic Organization

SURFACE WIND SPEED

— km/h

10m Marine Inflow

Operational Diagnostic: Evaluating thermodynamic state for the monitored domain centroid...

Source: … …

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Held-Out 2024 Test Verification: AI Forecast Model vs Baselines

Evaluated on 4,322 chronological test sequences across May–Oct 2024 (Zero Temporal Leakage)

AI FORECAST MODEL LEADS AT EVERY HORIZON (+2h to +6h)

Horizon	AI Forecast (CSI)	PR-AUC	POD (Recall)	FAR (False Alarm)	Brier Score	Persistence CSI	Relative Gain (CSI)
+2h Horizon	0.4054	0.6417	0.6155	0.4572	0.0415	0.3388	+19.7%
+3h Horizon	0.3341	0.5397	0.5774	0.5578	0.0479	0.2488	+34.3%
+4h Horizon	0.2925	0.4655	0.5246	0.6020	0.0529	0.1939	+50.9%
+5h Horizon	0.2605	0.4093	0.5151	0.6549	0.0563	0.1579	+65.0%
+6h Horizon	0.2413	0.3640	0.4813	0.6739	0.0573	0.1326	+82.0%
Overall Mean	0.3068	0.4840	0.5428	0.5891	0.0512	0.2146	+42.9% Mean

Explainable AI (XAI) Atmospheric Attribution Lab

PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTION

Physical diagnostic and feature attribution for AI Forecast Model nowcasting engine across monitored domain.

science Atmospheric Modality & Physical Diagnostic Attribution

Calibrated Model Skill

CSI: 0.3068

Mean Critical Success Index (CSI) achieved on 4,322 held-out 2024 test sequences. Outperforms persistence (+42.9%) across all +2h to +6h horizons.

Severe Weather Protocol: Calibrated probabilities exceeding lead threshold (τ ≥ 0.727 at +2h, τ ≥ 0.625 at +6h) trigger automated Red Warning Advisory for disaster management units.

GIS Spatial Layers & Domain Manager

VECTOR + RASTER

Forecast geospatial domains: West Bengal administrative boundaries, 0.25° prediction grid, SRTM elevation, and surface observation coordinates.

West Bengal Districts (GeoJSON)

12 monitored southern West Bengal districts with official administrative polygons and centroids.

LAYER ACTIVE · VECTOR

0.25° Model Prediction Grid

33×25 spatial grid (825 cells) covering 20.0°–28.0°N, 84.0°–90.0°E (~28 km resolution).

LAYER ACTIVE · RASTER

SRTM 30m Digital Elevation (DEM)

Resampled to 0.25° grid as static topographic forcing input to spatial encoder (elevation & slope).

STATIC ENCODER INPUT

Surface Weather Stations

Monitored surface telemetry station at West Bengal (22.72°N, 88.48°E) for live ambient observations.

TELEMETRY ACTIVE

Calibrated Alert Thresholds & Temperature Scaling

SCIENTIFIC CALIBRATION

Per-lead optimal classification thresholds (τ) and Platt temperature scaling factors ($T$) optimized on 2023 validation set.

+2h HORIZON CALIBRATION

τ = 0.727 · T = 0.4152

Calibrated threshold yields 0.4054 CSI and 0.6417 PR-AUC on 2024 test data with 0.0415 Brier Score.

+3h TO +5h PROGRESSION

τ ∈ [0.637, 0.679]

Threshold smoothly steps down to maintain high POD (>0.51) as forecast uncertainty grows over multi-hour lead times.

+6h HORIZON CALIBRATION

τ = 0.625 · T = 0.3819

Delivers 0.2413 CSI (+82.0% over persistence baseline 0.1326) and 0.4813 POD at the furthest nowcast lead.

IMD-Aligned Severity Classification Protocols

NORMAL (< 25%)

Background convective activity. Nominal ambient monitoring.

WATCH (25% – 50%)

Elevated CAPE / shear. Heightened radar vigilance advised.

ALERT (50% – 75%)

High probability of convective initiation within 2–6 hours.

WARNING (≥ 75% or ≥ τ)

Severe thunderstorm warning. Automated advisory triggered.

Atmospheric Data Streams & Ingestion Pipeline

INGESTION ACTIVE

Meteorological inputs powering the AI forecast.

health_and_safety

Data Pipeline Health & Input Stream Status

Status: Active

Surface Obs ONLINE

Surface Observation Feed

Poll Interval: 60s

Gridded Atmospheric Analysis OFFLINE (~5d)

Historical reanalysis (Historical mode)

Historical Mode Only

SRTM DEM LOADED

30m Elevation Grid (0.25° Block-Averaged)

Static Modality

Model Engine LOADED

AI Forecast Model

v2_calibrated_best.pt

GIS Boundaries LOADED

Official West Bengal GeoJSON (12 Districts)

State + District Vectors

GRIDDED ANALYSIS 0.25° Atmospheric CAPE, CIN, TCWV, Winds, Upper Levels

SRTM 30m DEM NASA / USGS Topography Block-averaged to 0.25° grid (825 cells)

SURFACE TELEMETRY Surface observation provider Station 22.72°N, 88.48°E (West Bengal)

INSAT-3DR ARCHIVE IMD Satellite Archive HEM, UTH, CTP, CTT, CMK Channels

West Bengal Nowcasting Desk

Thunderstorm

Heavy Rainfall

Flash-Flood Risk Proxy

Overall Hazard Level

0–6 hour outlook

Station Hazard Profile

Locating…

Active Meteorological Bulletins

Explainable AI (XAI) Factor Attribution

Spatial Nowcasting & Satellite Data Desk

track_changes Predicted High-Risk Grid Cells

IMD District Advisories & Civil Defence Protocols

Broadcast Advisory Log

AI Nowcast & Model Benchmark Desk

Model Architecture & Held-Out Test Metrics

AI Forecast Model

Earlier Model Baseline

Persistence Baseline

Multi-Horizon Convective Evolution (+2h to +6h)

Atmospheric Instability State

Held-Out 2024 Test Verification: AI Forecast Model vs Baselines

Explainable AI (XAI) Atmospheric Attribution Lab

science Atmospheric Modality & Physical Diagnostic Attribution

Calibrated Model Skill

GIS Spatial Layers & Domain Manager

Calibrated Alert Thresholds & Temperature Scaling

IMD-Aligned Severity Classification Protocols

Atmospheric Data Streams & Ingestion Pipeline

Data Pipeline Health & Input Stream Status

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT

West Bengal Nowcasting Desk

Thunderstorm

Heavy Rainfall

Flash-Flood Risk Proxy

Overall Hazard Level

0–6 hour outlook

Station Hazard Profile

Locating…

Active Meteorological Bulletins

Explainable AI (XAI) Factor Attribution

Spatial Nowcasting & Satellite Data Desk

track_changes Predicted High-Risk Grid Cells

IMD District Advisories & Civil Defence Protocols

Broadcast Advisory Log

AI Nowcast & Model Benchmark Desk

Model Architecture & Held-Out Test Metrics

AI Forecast Model

Earlier Model Baseline

Persistence Baseline

Multi-Horizon Convective Evolution (+2h to +6h)

Atmospheric Instability State

Held-Out 2024 Test Verification: AI Forecast Model vs Baselines

Explainable AI (XAI) Atmospheric Attribution Lab

science Atmospheric Modality & Physical Diagnostic Attribution

Calibrated Model Skill

GIS Spatial Layers & Domain Manager

Calibrated Alert Thresholds & Temperature Scaling

IMD-Aligned Severity Classification Protocols

Atmospheric Data Streams & Ingestion Pipeline

Data Pipeline Health & Input Stream Status

IN-APP SIREN BROADCAST

BROADCAST ADVISORY

DISSEMINATE CELL ALERTS

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT